2025.10.26

Observations on the Transition Phase of China-U.S. Economic and Trade Relations

On October 26, 2025, the "Grandwin Trade & Business Roundtable(Session X)" was successfully held. This session, themed "Observations on the Transition Phase of China-U.S. Economic and Trade Relations," invited Professor Chen Yongmei from the School of International Law at Southwest University of Political Science and Law—who is currently a visiting scholar at Washington University in St. Louis, USA—to serve as the keynote speaker. Professor Yang Guohua from Tsinghua University Law School served as the discussant, and the event was moderated by Lawyer Guan Jian, Director of Beijing Grandwin Law Firm.


Professor Chen Yongmei pointed out that the transformation of China-U.S. economic and trade relations began with the "Section 301 investigation" initiated after Donald Trump took office in 2017, and escalated with the imposition of additional tariffs in 2018, marking the full outbreak of the China-U.S. trade war. Since then, the U.S. has gradually linked trade policy with national security issues, deepening the trend of "securitization" in economic and trade relations. After Trump began his second term in 2025, the U.S. continued to pursue an "America First trade policy," further strengthening trade barriers through the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," exerting pressure on China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries, causing the spillover effects of China-U.S. economic and trade frictions to impact global supply chains.


She cited data from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) indicating that China-U.S. bilateral tariff levels have continuously risen since 2018. The U.S. average tariff on Chinese goods increased from 3% in January 2018 to 21% in January 2025, while China's average tariff on U.S. goods increased from 8% to 21% over the same period. The tariff war not only intensified operational pressures on businesses but also accelerated the "de-risking" of supply chains and industrial layouts between the two countries. On the judicial front, several lawsuits have emerged in the U.S. concerning the "Trump tariffs," including cases like V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump and State of Oregon v. Trump. In May 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that the Trump administration’s imposition of global retaliatory tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) lacked legal authorization, a judgment upheld by the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals (CAFC) in August. The courts held that the power to impose general tariffs rests with Congress, not the President; IEEPA cannot be used for general trade taxation; and invoking a "state of emergency" to impose broad-based tariffs violates legislative intent. This ruling is seen as a classic case of judicial checks and balances against executive overreach.


Drawing from her personal experience as a visiting scholar, Professor Chen also introduced the international exchange systems and academic environment within U.S. universities from educational and social observation perspectives. She mentioned that the BridgeUSA program, led by the U.S. Department of State, implements strict visa and compliance management for visiting scholars. At the university level, offices like the Office for International Students and Scholars (OISS) provide comprehensive support to scholars. She audited a course titled "International Business Transactions Law" at Washington University in St. Louis, covering topics such as cross-border transactions, foreign investment, intellectual property licensing, and M&A transactions. The class frequently analyzed cases where the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) blocked foreign acquisitions, with many involving Chinese companies, concentrated in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors, aviation, and software.


Professor Chen also shared her participation in academic lectures, including Professor Gregory Shaffer’s talk on "China and Transnational Legal Ordering: Disaggregating the State" and Professor Naomi Oreskes’ lecture on "The Big Myth: How American Business Taught Us to Loathe Government and Love the Free Market." She noted that university administrations expressed support and inclusivity towards international faculty and students through letters from the President and Provost during policy changes, reflecting the open-minded attitude of U.S. universities in a complex international environment.


In his commentary, Professor Yang Guohua noted that Professor Chen Yongmei's presentation provided valuable insights into the realities of U.S. society and academia against the backdrop of China-U.S. frictions. He emphasized that Chinese academia should pay attention to the substantive changes in the U.S. rule-of-law mechanisms, seeking to understand U.S. policies from the perspective of institutional evolution rather than falling into one-sided interpretations of information.


This salon showcased the structural changes in China-U.S. relations from multiple dimensions including law, economics and trade, and international exchange. Using her visiting scholar experience as a thread, Professor Chen Yongmei, from academic observation to legal analysis, provided a unique perspective for understanding the institutional logic behind U.S. economic and trade policies.