2025.12.26

Review and Outlook of WTO Reform

On December 26, 2025, the "Grandwin Trade & Business Roundtable(Session XI)"  was successfully held. Focusing on "Review and Outlook of WTO Reform," this salon was moderated by Lawyer Guan Jian of Beijing Grandwin Law Firm. Mr. Hong Xiaodong, an expert from the China Society for World Trade Organization Studies and former Director-General of the WTO Department at the Ministry of Commerce, served as the keynote speaker, while Professor Yang Guohua from Tsinghua University Law School participated as the discussant for an in-depth exchange.


Hong Xiaodong began by reviewing the macro background and evolution of WTO reform. He noted that the reform process can be broadly divided into three stages: 1) The Gestation and Preparation Phase (2017-2022), during which some members successively tabled reform positions and specific documents, such as the EU's "modernisation" proposal, the G20's declaration on "necessary reforms," and China's "Three Principles" and "Five Proposals," laying the groundwork for subsequent reforms but without achieving full consensus. 2) The Formal Advancement Phase (2022-2025), where at the 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12), all members reached a consensus to promote reform and engaged in substantive discussions centered around three indicative pillars: institutional issues; fair competition and balanced trade; and emerging issues like the digital economy, sustainable development, and climate change. 3) The ongoing Phase of Contestation between Reform and Rebuilding (Post-MC14), which is still taking shape. Some perspectives suggest that U.S. proposals have shifted from "reform" towards "rebuilding," aiming for fundamental change, necessitating careful assessment of their true intent.


On specific topics, Hong Xiaodong focused on two major dimensions: "Rule Updates" and "Efficiency Enhancement." Rule updates aim to increase the WTO's contemporary relevance, primarily covering emerging areas like the digital economy, investment facilitation, climate change, and sustainable development. They also seek to create a fairer and more balanced trading environment by reforming subsidy policies, establishing new industrial policy coordination mechanisms, and enhancing data transparency, among other measures. Efficiency enhancement focuses on optimizing institutional mechanisms. This includes innovating decision-making processes to alleviate practical challenges in applying the "consensus" principle, breaking the deadlock in Appellate Body reform, and strengthening the functioning of the Secretariat and its subsidiary bodies.


From the perspective of member dynamics, Hong Xiaodong analyzed the positions and influence of major economies. China has shown a constructive stance on issues like subsidies and market access, actively promoting multilateral agendas such as investment facilitation—for instance, by championing and facilitating negotiations on investment facilitation for development and e-commerce. The United States tends to favor reshaping the rules system based on the principle of "differentiated treatment," its position being seen as a "critical variable" influencing the reform's direction. Furthermore, the integration and evolution of regional agreements like RCEP and CPTPP may also profoundly impact the existing WTO landscape.


Professor Yang Guohua and Hong Xiaodong engaged in a dialogue on introducing different negotiation models to break impasses. They explored the potential of mechanisms like "165+1" or "165+X"—where consensus is first built among all members except the U.S. or a specific member, gradually expanding the circle of agreement to enhance collective bargaining power, offering new avenues to overcome stalemates.


Finally, participants both online and offline held lively discussions on topics such as "Development and Special and Differential Treatment," "The Interplay between Regional Trade Agreements and WTO Reform," and "Prospects for WTO Reform." Drawing on their respective research fields and practical experience, participants engaged in in-depth exchanges on the key challenges of WTO reform from various angles, further enriching the discussion's breadth and depth.


This salon provided a profound analysis of the evolution of multilateral mechanisms, structural challenges, and potential pathways within the current WTO reform by systematically reviewing the reform process, focusing on core issues, and evaluating member positions. Mr. Hong Xiaodong, combining policy practice and negotiation observations, constructed an analytical framework for understanding current WTO reform dynamics through phased review, issue-focused examination, and member-based analysis. Professor Yang Guohua contributed forward-looking insights on governance transformation and negotiation models. The seminar content balanced policy relevance with theoretical depth, offering a multi-layered frame of reference for comprehending the evolutionary logic and future trajectory of the multilateral trading system.