On the afternoon of December 4, 2024, the first session of the "Grandwin Trade & Business Roundtable (Session I): The Impact and Response to Trump's Tariff Policy 2.0" was successfully held at Beijing Grandwin Law Firm. The salon focused on the tariff policies of the Trump administration and two new legislative proposals by U.S. Congress members concerning China-U.S. economic and trade relations—namely, revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status and imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods—exploring the potential impact of these measures on China-U.S. economic ties and Chinese enterprises. The event invited several experts, scholars, senior lawyers, and chamber of commerce representatives from the field of international economics and trade, and received strong support from media outlets such as Yicai and Economic Daily.

As the moderator of the salon, Professor Yang Guohua, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the Tsinghua University Law School, first pointed out that Trump's Tariff Policy 2.0 could have a significant impact on Chinese enterprises and even the global economy. The salon aimed to discuss the direction of U.S. tariff policies and potential response strategies for Chinese companies. He expressed his hope that the panelists would engage in discussions centered around U.S. tariff policies.

The keynote speaker, Adams Lee, Senior Attorney at U.S. law firm Harris Sliwoski, noted that Trump's policy style is characterized by "uncertainty." The final form of policy implementation remains difficult to predict, ranging from the 60% tariffs promised during the campaign to the recently mentioned 10%-25%. Trump's cabinet appointments, particularly Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick from Wall Street, might lead to a more gradual and less disruptive implementation of tariff policies. If tariffs increase, consumers will ultimately bear the cost. Furthermore, revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status would have profound implications for China-U.S. trade relations. However, this change requires congressional approval, making it difficult to achieve under the current political climate. He specifically advised Chinese enterprises to closely monitor changes in U.S. domestic and foreign policies and develop response plans in advance.

Following the keynote speech, panelists shared their insights on the issue. Professor Ji Wenhua, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the University of International Business and Economics Law School, emphasized that while the overall direction of Trump's tariff policies is relatively clear, their ultimate effect remains uncertain and is closely linked to U.S. domestic economic conditions, such as inflation and fiscal issues. In response, China may inevitably adopt certain countermeasures, which could extend beyond goods to broader economic and trade areas like services as needed. Meanwhile, the impact of uncertainties in China-U.S. trade relations is not confined to the two countries but also involves other nations globally, such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU. He called on enterprises and the public to maintain rationality and composure in the current uncertain international environment, thoroughly assessing information and the situation before determining and implementing action plans.

Liu Jianwei, Partner at Beijing Zhong Lun Law Firm, analyzed the significant challenges enterprises face during overseas expansion from a corporate perspective. He stated that when formulating global strategies, companies should not overlook potential subsequent trade restrictions and political risks, such as trade barriers and measures taken by third-country governments under U.S. influence.

Simultaneously, enterprises need to pay attention to the potential impact of relevant policies, such as the EU's cross-border subsidy regulations and Belt and Road-related policies, fully considering the risks that may arise during the "going global" process.

Li Zhenghao, Partner at Beijing King & Wood Mallesons, suggested that in response to potential measures like tariff increases by the new U.S. administration, China could implement measures to expand openness, such as lowering tariffs, optimizing the business environment, and expanding visa-free policies. These measures could attract more international investors and partners, thereby mitigating adverse effects. Furthermore, these actions could expand and strengthen China's "circle of friends" within the international community, demonstrating China's firm stance on multilateralism and free trade, garnering broader international support, and effectively resisting the counter-current of deglobalization and decoupling.

Chen Jing, Partner at Beijing Lantai Law Firm, explored the similarities between the context of the Nixon era and the current China-U.S. situation based on historical Sino-American experiences. In today's international landscape, China needs to shift its mindset, leveraging international cooperation and consensus to resolve contradictions and risks. Lawyer Chen pointed out that besides the U.S., the EU and some neighboring countries have also begun implementing similar measures, imposing tariff or non-tariff barriers on China. As the Trump administration's policies advance, this situation may worsen. Enterprises, governments, and industry organizations should remain vigilant, mentally prepared for this change, and seek flexible solutions from historical experience.

Hao Jingyu, Partner at Beijing Hairun & Tianrui Law Firm, emphasized the high complexity of rules of origin, noting significant differences in origin standards across countries, which pose numerous challenges for enterprises responding to tariffs. Additionally, tariff laws in the U.S. and other countries are highly flexible, with the continuous introduction of new legislation potentially rendering corporate response strategies quickly obsolete, thereby increasing the difficulty of adaptation. Tariffs are not merely an issue of inter-enterprise competition; they also involve the distribution of benefits among domestic industries and labor. Tariff barriers are gradually shifting from traditional goods trade to areas like environmental protection and labor protection, which will increase the difficulty of defense for both enterprises and governments. Enterprises engaged in international trade need to focus on compliance issues, avoid blind action, and minimize legal risks as much as possible.

Jian Guan, Partner at Beijing Grandwin Law Firm, expressed sincere gratitude to the moderator Professor Yang Guohua, all panelists, and the attending media representatives for their support. Lawyer Guan proposed that discrimination triggered by tariffs might shift from being based on origin to being based on ownership, meaning a company's control and shareholder background could also become grounds for trade barriers. For example, relevant policies introduced by the EU and the U.S. might target enterprises closely associated with the Chinese government, significantly impacting their cross-border investments and global operations. Enterprises should enhance risk awareness during their "going global" journey, conduct strategic planning in advance, and if necessary, appropriately adjust equity structures and business cooperation models to mitigate policy risks.

Ms. Zhang Airong, Director of the Legal Department at the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters, pointed out that China-U.S. trade frictions have already had widespread impacts on domestic and foreign enterprises. She called on companies to place greater emphasis on policy research during their "going global" process and to prepare adequate risk contingency plans.

At the conclusion of the event, moderator Professor Yang Guohua expressed full affirmation of the Grandwin International Economic and Trade Law Salon, looking forward to further discussions through more sessions to explore more constructive international economic and trade response strategies, helping enterprises and various sectors of society tackle challenges.