On the morning of March 1, 2025, the fourth session of the "Grandwin Trade & Business Roundtable(Session IV): Tariff Principles and Trump's Tariffs" was successfully held, hosted by Professor Yang Guohua from the Tsinghua University Law School. This session was honored to invite Professor Ma Hong from the Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management to conduct an in-depth discussion and analysis of a series of tariff measures implemented after the Trump administration took office in the United States.

The moderator of this salon, Professor Yang Guohua from the Tsinghua University Law School, pointed out that the Trump administration implemented a series of tariff increase measures after taking office, which significantly impacted China-U.S. trade relations. Therefore, analyzing the objectives, effects, and reasons behind the Trump administration's tariff measures from an economic perspective is particularly important.

Professor Ma Hong from the Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, a panelist at this salon, provided a detailed sharing and elaboration on Trump's tariff policies. Ma Hong first noted that tariff policies play a crucial role in international trade. He specifically mentioned the three main functions of tariffs: increasing fiscal revenue (revenue), restricting foreign commerce to protect domestic industries (restrict), and serving as bargaining chips (reciprocal). These three functions are particularly evident in U.S. tariff policies towards China. He mentioned that during the Trump era, the new U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, also explicitly stated these three main purposes for imposing tariffs on China in his inaugural speech.

Secondly, Ma Hong, starting from international trade theory, deeply analyzed the impact of tariff policies on the behavior of importing country enterprises and market competition. He pointed out that if the exporting country adopts a tit-for-tat countermeasure strategy, it could trigger a trade war where both sides lose. Therefore, multilateral agreements like the WTO have certain importance in constraining the actions of major powers.

Furthermore, Ma Hong discussed the concept of strategic trade policy, where governments help domestic enterprises gain competitive advantages in the international market through means like subsidies or tariffs. He believes that while such policies might achieve some success under certain circumstances, their long-term effects are uncertain and may trigger international trade conflicts and retaliatory measures.

Finally, Ma Hong mentioned alternative explanations for tariff measures. From a political economy perspective, the Trump administration's tariff increases might not be entirely based on economic considerations. Taking the U.S. government as an example, despite welfare analysis suggesting that tariff increases could harm the welfare of ordinary Americans, increase inflation, and cause net losses for the U.S., the government might still choose to raise tariffs due to political or other non-economic factors. These factors could include domestic political pressure, electoral considerations, protection of specific industries, etc. From a geopolitical perspective, imposing tariffs could be part of a strategy for competition among major powers. For instance, to weaken China's position in the international market and promote the transfer of industries out of China, thereby safeguarding its own geopolitical interests. This explanation emphasizes the importance of international politics and strategic factors in tariff policy formulation. While such a strategy might cause losses to domestic industries or consumer welfare in the short term, in the long run, it could help the country occupy a more favorable position in the global political and economic landscape.